Web summaries
The content on this page was written by AI under human supervision.
One page per project, written as a plain-language account of what the papers do and find, with a few figures and equations from the papers themselves. Where a project has several papers, the main page links to a page for each. The manuscripts are on the manuscripts page.
- Ecology — Neutral biodiversity. Neutral theory solved exactly and tested against three decades of forest censuses, and a minimal model of what comes after it; with a short film.
- Evolutionary biology — Phylogenetics. Exact Bayesian evidence for small phylogenetic trees, the standard estimators measured against it, and the JaCK & Jill package.
- Population genetics — Rare mutations and gene conversion. An exact site-frequency spectrum under selection applied to large exome catalogs, and signatures of gene conversion in the human two-site spectrum; with a short film.
- Genomics — Single-cell bursting. Controlled inference of transcriptional bursting from single-cell RNA counts, and a refractory class of mammalian promoters found in time-resolved data; with a short film.
- Earth science — The Great Oxidation. How Earth's atmosphere gained its oxygen, in a minimal ocean–atmosphere model tied to the rock record; with a short film.
- Solar physics — Sunspots and starspots. Survival analysis applied to a century of sunspot-group records and to spot regions on other stars; with a short film.
- Collider physics — Feynman integrals. The program's origin: thirty frontier Feynman integrals computed in closed form, with pages for each integral and for the function classes they live in (polylogarithms, elliptic curves, K3 surfaces, Calabi–Yau geometries).
- Collider physics — Energy correlators. Energy-weighted angular correlations in collider events, with project pages for the hidden sunrise in the two-point correlator and the four-point correlator in QCD and its supersymmetric cousin.
- Condensed matter theory — The Watson integral. The return probability of a random walker on an anisotropic cubic lattice, the last open case of Watson's 1939 integrals, and the K3 surface it turns out to live on.
- Mathematical physics — String theory. Three exact calculations, each with its own page: the six-point Grassmannian string integral, exact methods for flux vacua, and modular graph functions and depth-three multiple zeta values.
- Economics — Reproducing published economics. An LLM workflow that reruns published articles from their replication packages, then looks for numerical improvements and extensions (NBER working paper with Isaiah Andrews and Jesse M. Shapiro).
- Statistics — Mixture models. Exact Bayesian evidence for how many components a mixture has, from two components to the Dirichlet-process limit (with Subhabrata Sen).
- Cosmology — Cosmological correlators. The one-loop, three-site wavefunction coefficient of the universe: elliptic master integrals whose periods cancel, leaving dilogarithms.
- Gravitational waves — Black-hole scattering. Gravitational-wave memory and its back-reaction on the orbit at fifth post-Minkowskian order, where the integrals involve periods of a K3 surface.
- Cosmology — Large-scale structure. The loop expansion of galaxy clustering in redshift space carried to two loops, and the KITE code that evaluates it at stated precision (preliminary versions; survey fits in preparation).
- Linguistics — AccStack: Catalog of Stress and Tone. ACCSTACK, a sourced catalog of word stress and tone across the world's languages (with Kevin M. Ryan, Matthew K. Gordon and Joe Pater); a language-trees paper is in preparation.
- Textual analysis — Mixed and multiple authorship. Bayesian evidence for hypotheses in which a text has more than one author, worked on classic attribution problems.
- Cryptography — The Voynich manuscript. What the statistics of the text say about how the manuscript was written.
- Health policy — Medicare star ratings. Six Medicare rating programs share one stated rule for placing the star boundaries, and for Medicare Advantage plans the stars set bonus payments worth billions of dollars a year; the paper computes the rule’s exact optimum and finds that the published star bins often miss it.
- Environmental policy — The ozone standard. Whether a place meets the U.S. ozone limit of 70 parts per billion is decided by a calculation that discards digits, by truncation rather than rounding, at three separate steps; the borderline cases of 2020–2025 are recomputed from public monitoring data to count how many attainment determinations turn on where the digits are cut.
- Medicine — Adaptive trial designs. The error rates and power of adaptive and Bayesian Phase II trial designs are almost always estimated by simulation; across nine published designs about one reported value in three is too close to its threshold to call, and where a design’s published decision rule allows, the values are computed exactly instead.